How did we do?

This map compares the observed number of spots with the predicted outcome. Because our model offers a probabilistic prediction, rather than a yes or no outcome, we had to choose a threshold for which the percent probability and the number of spots would mean "outbreak predicted."

The legend on this map is keyed to a 20% threshold, and a probability of >50 spots. So "outbreak predicted" means there was a 20% or greater chance of there being 50 or more spots in any given location. "Outbreak not predicted" means there was a less than 20% chance of there being 50 or more spots. Although it is common for "20%" to be viewed as a low number for "probability that an event occurs," it still means a 1 in 5 chance, which we think qualifies as a prediction of outbreak.